BTC down 10% as $2.5B is sold by miners and German government
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Gm Gino,

 

This week, we dive into crypto's underperformance relative to stocks. We analyze the current path of the market, the entities weighing down on prices, and a potential catalyst to lead markets to resurge in the near future.

Key Metrics (Weekly Change)

btc

Bitcoin BTC
Price
$64,700 (-3.0%)

Total Fees 

$19.2M (-64%)

Exchange Flows

-$410M (+$600M)

    Ethereum-logo

    Ethereum ETH
    Price
    $3,500 (+0.1%)

    Total Fees

    $30.3M (-36%)

    Exchange Flows

    -$570M (-$270M)

      Network Fees - Sum of total fees spent to use a particular blockchain. This tracks the willingness to spend and demand to use Bitcoin or Ether

      • Bitcoin fees dropped by 64% as volatility slumped
      • Ethereum fees declined by 36% despite LayerZero's and ZKSync's airdrops generating on-chain activity

      Exchanges Netflows  - The net amount of inflows minus outflows of a specific crypto-asset going in/out of centralized exchanges

      • $400M worth of Bitcoin was withdrawn from CEXs, and slightly higher amounts for ETH

      Crypto Underperforms as Miners & German Government Sell

      Crypto is off to a rocky summer. Excitement from the Ethereum ETF approvals has cooled down, as crypto prices have trended down over the past four weeks, despite stocks hitting fresh all-time highs. Let's analyze some of the reasons for crypto's underperformance.

      Screenshot 2024-06-20 at 11.12.14 PM-1

      Source: ITB Capital Markets

      Crypto's Underperformance - Bitcoin and Ether are down over 10% from their yearly highs

      • Other large cap crypto-assets such as SOL, ADA and LINK are down by more than 25% from local highs
      • Meme coin mania seems long gone, with PEPE and WIF down over 40%
      • Despite stock markets hitting new highs, risk appetite in crypto has slowed down dramatically

      What is behind the sell-off? Partly it could be profit-taking from crypto's market cap nearly doubling between Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, but there also seem to be other sellers weighing down on the space. 

      Screenshot 2024-06-20 at 11.27.36 PM

      Source: ITB Bitcoin Mining Indicators

      Bitcoin Miners Sell Reserves at Fastest Pace in Over 1 Year

      • Bitcoin miners have offloaded over 30k BTC (~$2B) since June
      • The Bitcoin halving two months ago might be a driver behind the recent miner sell-off as margins have decreased since then
      • Bitcoin's hash rate is also down by approximately 15% over the last month

      Outside of miners, the German government appears to be selling Bitcoin it had previously seized from a piracy website. A German government tied Bitcoin address recently sent 6,500 BTC (~$420M) to centralized exchanges, a likely sign that they are selling. 

      Exploring Ethereum Restaking

      With the recent launch of Symbtioic and Eigenlayer's success, the restaking space is looking extremely promising. Our latest perspective dashboard explores this ecosystem in detail👇

      Explore Perspective

      Screenshot 2024-06-20 at 10.52.46 PM

      Source: ITB Bitcoin Financial Indicators

      87% of BTC Holders Are Still Sitting on Profits 

      • The recent correction has not affected Bitcoin holders as severely, with the vast majority of them still making money on their positions
      • Bitcoin's dominance of the crypto-market has reached a 3-year high as the rest of assets have fallen off significantly more in the past few weeks

      Overall, sentiment in the crypto market has gone awry as most crypto-assets other than Bitcoin are significantly below their previous highs. Summers in crypto have historically been slow compared to other quarters. Will the Ethereum ETFs make it different? 

      Ethereum Holders Keep Accumulating

      While long-term Bitcoin holders have started selling their holdings, like they do every cycle, Ethereum holders are shaking things up. New yield opportunities in the ETH ecosystem and anticipation of an Ethereum ETF could be driving this divergence.

      Read More

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